Bulgaria
Simulations performed on 2022-04-06
Scenario description: high vaccination & short immunity (relaxed)
Defining parameters
Projection vaccination rate: 28 % of population per year (continuously)
Mean immunity duration (after natural infection): 105 days (transmission)
Mean immunity duration (after vaccination): 70 days (transmission)
Scenario involving gradual re-opening as more immunity builds up: True
Assuming no more variants of concern to emerge: True
Assumed steady-state mortality: 0.007 %
Other key parameters
Threshold death rate for starting countermeasures: 40.00 percent of natural mortality rate
Threshold death rate applied to: Death rate corrected for natural mortality
Extrapolate mortality exp decay fit to projection: True
Initial vaccine effectiveness (full dose): 90 % (transmission)
Initial vaccine effectiveness (booster): 50 % (transmission)
Vaccine effectiveness: 95 % (death)
Include the contribution due to natural mortality ('with covid') in death rate projections: True
Assume data include deaths 'with covid' (as opposed to deaths OF covid only): True
Avgerage seasonal reproduction number: 6.07
Relative strength of seasonal signal: 0.19
Minimum incidence rate: 0.02 per million per day
Only symptomatics get tested: True
Probability of diagnosis given symptoms: 75.00 %
Symptomatic proportion: 54.60 %
Remarks
Physical time reference frame: Days since confirmed new daily cases first exceeded 20
Infection time reference frame: Infection date
Lockdown factor (reduction in transmission due to non-pfarmaceutical interventions) is defined as the ratio of R seasonal and R basic.
Most recent cases data reported on 2022-04-05
Most recent vaccination data reported on 2022-04-04