Simulations performed on 2022-04-06

Scenario description: high vaccination & short immunity (relaxed)

Defining parameters

Projection vaccination rate: 75 % of population per year (continuously)

Mean immunity duration (after natural infection): 105 days (transmission)

Mean immunity duration (after vaccination): 70 days (transmission)

Scenario involving gradual re-opening as more immunity builds up: True

Assuming no more variants of concern to emerge: True

Assumed steady-state mortality: 0.007 %

Other key parameters

Threshold death rate for starting countermeasures: 40.00 percent of natural mortality rate

Threshold death rate applied to: Death rate corrected for natural mortality

Extrapolate mortality exp decay fit to projection: True

Initial vaccine effectiveness (full dose): 90 % (transmission)

Initial vaccine effectiveness (booster): 50 % (transmission)

Vaccine effectiveness: 95 % (death)

Include the contribution due to natural mortality ('with covid') in death rate projections: True

Assume data include deaths 'with covid' (as opposed to deaths OF covid only): True

Avgerage seasonal reproduction number: 5.26

Relative strength of seasonal signal: 0.19

Minimum incidence rate: 0.02 per million per day

Only symptomatics get tested: True

Probability of diagnosis given symptoms: 75.00 %

Symptomatic proportion: 54.60 %


Physical time reference frame: Days since confirmed new daily cases first exceeded 20

Infection time reference frame: Infection date

Lockdown factor (reduction in transmission due to non-pfarmaceutical interventions) is defined as the ratio of R seasonal and R basic.

Most recent cases data reported on 2022-04-05

Most recent vaccination data reported on 2022-04-01